On the 1st of November 2013, a significant newsletter was released to a very elite and privileged few. These few had the inside track of what was to come in the next decade, and were being positioned to not only weather the coming economic storms, but abundantly prosper in them.
Who are these few?
Are they the 1% of the corporate and government cartel pulling the strings of society as we know it?
Despite what your instincts may tell you, they are not. For if they were, Bitcoin would probably be at a far higher price than it is now (note the cynical tone).
They are simply the subscribers of “The Global Macro Investor“. A research publication put out by, as the name suggest, global macro analyst Raoul Pal.
Raoul has a frighteningly accurate track record. So much so, that the whiz retired at the ripe age of 36 and did what most 36 year olds only dream of doing: He pursued his passions. He started a finance media platform named “Real Vision“.
It is Raoul’s incredible skill at identifying global trends and complex nuances in world markets that make him one of the best in the business. He predicted the current financial depression (although of course didn’t know it would be brought on by a health pandemic). He predicted the bond market bubble and US Dollar surge we are seeing now in the midst of this crisis.
And in a fateful newsletter in November 2013, using in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s “stock-to-flow ratio”, Raoul boldly proclaimed that technically, Bitcoin should be worth $900,000.
What is remarkable about this edition of the newsletter and its claims (which we have sourced thanks to “Zero Hedge” here), is that this claim was made before anyone even in crypto today had any idea what Bitcoin was, let alone “stock to flow”. It is the timing of this prediction, coupled with its poignant accuracy, that makes it so brilliant.
In episode 2 of The Global Crypto Podcast with Luno, Raoul admits that he sold his Bitcoin position in 2017 at a 10x profit when the price reached $2000. The mania had become too irrational, and he knew a pullback was coming. He just didn’t realise it would come after $20,000 instead of $2000.
Raoul still believes that the flow of “institutional money” and family investment firms in addition to the likely “dedollarisation” of the global economy will inevitably drive the Bitcoin price close to his $900,000 prediction – but there is no way of perfectly timing that.
The macro investor turned media mogul believes we are in for an incredible shift in the construct of our societies, with tough economic times ahead.
The conversation we had with Raoul was a meandering dialogue about his entry into media, the reliance of emerging markets on the dollar, the political divide between populism and globalism, exploring where global markets could go in light of Covid-19, and of course what to expect with Bitcoin. It was a delightful conversation with a delightful thinker.
Listen to it on your favourite media platform below:
You can catch the podcast on all the major platforms: