Everyone is excited about the “Halving”, or the “Halvening”, whichever school you are from (I am from the English Grammar school so much prefer “halving”).
From today, when the 629,999th block is mined, the new reward for mining a block on Bitcoin’s blockchain will be 6.25 btc, and no longer 12.5 btc as it has been for the last 4 years, thereby reducing Bitcoin’s ever important “stock to flow” ratio.
Many people believe that this will have a severe impact on Bitcoin’s market, and push the price up significantly with half of the Bitcoin being available for sale. But the reality is: There is much, much more old and used Bitcoin for sale on exchanges than there is newly minted coin.
In this lesson, I give a run through, using actual exchange data, of why I believe the Bitcoin price will not be directly affected by the halving event.
While I certainly believe Bitcoin’s limited supply has a direct impact on its price as more and more people come to hear about it and want to get their hands on it, I don’t believe the mining reward is as influential as many people make it out to be.
Set aside 20 mins of your time, and go through this analysis of Bitcoin exchange buy & sell data, and see why I believe the halving isn’t all it’s cracked up to be…
If you prefer shorter versions, you can watch this very short summary on Facebook here:
